JustChartsWhat Is Retail Sales Data and Why Does It Move Markets?
Retail sales measure the monthly change in spending at shops, restaurants and online retailers. In the US, the Census Bureau publishes them around the middle of each month at 8:30 a.m. New York time. Because consumer spending drives most of the economy, a strong surprise tends to lift the dollar and yields; a weak one points to slowing growth.
Key facts
- US publisher
- Census Bureau
- US release
- mid-month, 8:30 a.m. New York time
- Headline
- all retail and food-service sales, % change m/m
- Ex-autos
- removes volatile car sales
- Control group
- feeds directly into GDP estimates
The different retail sales numbers
- Headline: total retail and food-service sales — includes cars and petrol, so it can swing with prices.
- Ex-autos: removes motor vehicles and parts.
- Control group (“core”): excludes autos, petrol stations, building materials and food services. Economists use it to estimate consumer spending in GDP, so markets often focus on it.
Important caveats
- Figures are nominal — not adjusted for inflation — so higher prices can make sales look stronger.
- Previous months are often revised; a strong headline with a big downward revision can be weak overall.
- Weather, holidays and the timing of shopping events distort individual months.
How markets react
| Retail sales vs forecast | US dollar | Gold | Bond yields |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger | Up | Down | Up |
| Weaker | Down | Up | Down |
Other countries’ retail sales — the UK, Canada, Australia and the eurozone — move their own currencies the same way. Check the economic calendar for times in your time zone.
Frequently asked questions
What time are US retail sales released?
Around the middle of the month at 8:30 a.m. New York time, from the US Census Bureau.
What is the retail sales control group?
Sales excluding autos, petrol, building materials and food services. It is used to estimate consumer spending for GDP.
Are retail sales adjusted for inflation?
No, US retail sales are reported in nominal terms, so rising prices alone can lift the figures.
Put it into practice
Live charts, an economic calendar and trading calculators — free with a JustCharts account.
See the next retail sales releaseThis article is for education only and is not financial advice. Trading leveraged products carries a high risk of losing money. Contract sizes, trading hours and leverage limits vary by broker and country — always check your own broker’s specifications.